NDA Nod, MGB Mud: Poll Tango Tightens
Patna/Delhi: In the sweltering run-up to Bihar’s two-phase assembly elections on November 6 and 11, the state’s fractious political landscape unfolded a tableau of tentative truces and simmering standoffs today, October 15, 2025, as leaders from the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan navigated the treacherous waters of seat allocations and candidate declarations. With results slated for November 14, the 243-seat contest – pitting Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] and its partners against Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Tejashwi Yadav’s coalition – revealed alliances as much defined by their fault lines as by their shared ambitions, where caste arithmetic, historical grievances, and last-minute diplomacy held sway over grand strategies.
The day’s undercurrents began with a calibrated calm in the NDA camp, where Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) president Upendra Kushwaha, a key custodian of the Kushwaha community’s 4 per cent vote share, returned from Delhi bearing the imprint of resolution after a 30-minute conclave with Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Kushwaha’s journey had been precipitated by late-yesterday exasperation: a midnight parley at his Patna residence with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) heavyweights, including state in-charge Vinod Tawde and Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, had failed to assuage his ire over the redirection of two seats from RLM’s six-seat quota – most pointedly Mahua, earmarked for his son Deepak Prakash – to Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) [LJP(RV)] chief Chirag Paswan’s fold. Accompanied by Minister of State for Home Nityanand Rai, Kushwaha had boarded a flight with measured words: “I go with hope that everything will settle.” Post-meeting, his tone pivoted to guarded positivity, declaring to reporters that “everything is fine now; the NDA stands united, and victory in Bihar is assured,” with BJP state president Dilip Jaiswal confirming an additional legislative council seat for RLM alongside its assembly allocations, while hinting at discussions on Mahua alternatives and safeguards for his Rajya Sabha term, up for renewal next year.
Yet, the NDA’s equilibrium teetered elsewhere, as JD(U)’s freshly unveiled roster of 57 candidates – the party’s opening salvo from its 101-seat allotment, personally greenlit by Kumar – laid bare territorial encroachments on LJP(RV)’s anticipated turf. The list encompassed nominees for at least five constituencies – Sonbarsa, Alauli, Ekma, Morwa, and Rajgir – that preliminary negotiations had tilted toward Paswan’s outfit, which boasts a 5.66 per cent legacy vote from its unified 2020 outing and a 2024 Lok Sabha sweep of five seats. JD(U) sources framed the inclusions as imperatives for safeguarding ministerial strongholds and loyalist enclaves, such as Sonbarsa, a 2020 JD(U) hold. Paswan’s camp, contesting 29 seats overall, maintained outward composure, proceeding with announcements like state president Raju Tiwary in Govindganj and Hulas Pandey in Brahmapur. The BJP, rounding out its own 101-seat ledger with a third tranche of 18 names – building on prior lists featuring Deputy Chief Ministers Choudhary in Tarapur and Vijay Kumar Sinha in Lakhisarai, plus cultural draw Maithili Thakur in Alinagar – positioned itself as the steadying force, its state president Dilip Jaiswal touting a “cordial” distribution among allies, including six seats each for Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) [HAM(S)] under Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and RLM.
From Delhi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi amplified the NDA’s grassroots pulse via a virtual address to booth workers under the “Mera Booth Sabse Majboot” banner today, coining “Ekjut NDA, Ekjut Bihar” to extol women’s empowerment drives – crediting schemes that have self-employed 75 lakh in groups – and youth packages exceeding Rs 62,000 crore, while jabbing at RJD’s “jungle raj” legacy of Naxal strife. Shah’s three-day Bihar immersion, set to commence tomorrow, loomed as a consolidation tour, blending public rallies with backstage brokering.
Across the divide, the Mahagathbandhan – encompassing RJD, Indian National Congress, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and Left fronts like the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) [CPI(ML)] – mirrored the NDA’s disquiet, its seat-sharing impasse stretching into a third day without a formal pact after a huddle, yesterday. RJD scion Tejashwi Yadav, the bloc’s presumptive face amid Lalu Prasad Yadav’s health constraints, filed from Raghopur in a familial procession with parents Lalu and Rabri Devi, channeling a narrative of jobs, migration palliatives, and “vote theft” barbs at the Election Commission’s (EC) Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of rolls – echoing August’s rebuff of his EPIC as “fake” and urging its surrender. Yet, the centrepiece remained elusive: RJD’s reported overture of 135 seats clashed with Congress’s insistence on 61-70, while concessions to VIP’s Mukesh Sahni (16 seats, half with RJD/Congress nominees under VIP symbols) and Left parties (31 combined) whittled the majors’ shares. This prompted Congress’s unilateral fielding of 13 candidates today and accusations of RJD foot-dragging, particularly in Seemanchal’s 26 seats where Congress eyed 16 but faced caps at eight. Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera insisted, “No hitch exists; we fight as one.”
Adding to the turbulence, former Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) leader Suraj Bhan Singh resigned from Pashupati Kumar Paras’s camp on October 15 over ticket denials and the party’s pivot to a “third front,” slamming it as a betrayal of Ram Vilas Paswan’s legacy. Speculation swirled of his imminent switch to RJD, with his wife Veena Devi eyed for the Mokama seat on an RJD ticket, potentially igniting a Bhumihar showdown against JD(U)’s Anant Singh and injecting fresh volatility into MGB dynamics.
Fringe challengers injected further flux: Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), spurning pacts for a full 243-seat solo sprint, appended 65 candidates to its ledger today, bringing the total to over 110, with Kishor demurring a personal run to nurture the outfit’s anti-caste pitch amid SIR-fueled disenfranchisement claims. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) mirrored the sweep, peddling Delhi’s welfare playbook to urban doubters. The EC, vigilant amid EVM scepticism, tallied Rs 33.97 crore in seized inducements since the model code’s October 6 onset – cash, narcotics, freebies – while mandating ad pre-certifications, authentic social media handles, and bulk SMS halts in silence phases. Voter tallies stood firm at 7.42 crore post-SIR, with women’s mobilisation eyed for bumper turnout.
As Kumar set to unfurl his trail in Samastipur tomorrow – eyeing Darbhanga next, including Vijay Kumar Choudhary’s Sarairanjan filing – Bihar’s electorate, stratified by caste censuses and economic drifts, confronted a referendum on incumbency’s deliverables versus opposition’s equity vows. Polls sketched NDA leads on rural welfarism, tempered by youth alienation and JSP/AAP vote-splinters; a Mahagathbandhan upset might galvanise INDIA bloc cohesion for 2029, while NDA solidity could fortify Modi’s parliamentary arithmetic. In this perennial pivot state, today’s diplomacy merely previewed the deeper jostles ahead, where unity’s veneer often cracks under nomination’s glare.
– global bihari bureau
