Bihar’s Electoral Crucible: Where Caste Collides with Aspiration

 By Deepak Parvatiyar*

Bihar Votes: Bloodline vs. Breadline

As Bihar heads to the polls in November 2025, caste arithmetic collides with economic angst in a contest that tests both alliances and aspirations. This report dissects how rival blocs—National Democratic Alliance and Mahagathbandhan—balance power equations, youth frustration, and migration wounds in a two-phase battle where 43 million voters must choose between identity and opportunity. This feature blends on-ground voices with data-driven insight into India’s most politically charged heartland.

Bihar’s November 2025 assembly elections ignite the Gangetic plains, a high-stakes clash where political titans wield candidate lists like battle banners, caste demographics as shields, and manifesto promises as flickering beacons to sway 43 million voters.

On October 20, 2025, with nominations closed for the first phase’s 121 seats and the second phase’s 122 seats nearing an October 24 deadline, the electoral stage is set for giants but blurred for minnows.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 101 seats, Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) with 101, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)) with 29, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM(S)) with 6, Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) with 6—has locked its 243-seat roster.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance—Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with ~144 seats, Indian National Congress (INC) with 53, Left parties with 25-30, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) with 4-6, is nearly finalised, though squabbles over seats like Gaura Bauram add drama.

Fringe players like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) stay silent, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) unveils 25 Muslim-focused picks, Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) claims all 243 with diversity. Breakaways like Lalu Yadav’s elder son Tej Pratap’s Janshakti Janata Dal (JJD) with 21 and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) eyeing 153 tease with partial lists; their delays are a cunning bid to pounce on rivals’ fumbles. (SBSP’s Bihar foray could, at the most, marginally dent the NDA – potentially 1-2% vote share in 50-60 seats, as Rajbhar voters overlap with JD(U)’s EBC base. The JJD’s first list of 21 candidates focused on Yadav-dominated constituencies like Mahua (Tej Pratap himself) and targeted RJD-held seats to exploit family rifts).

Also read:

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• Bihar Polls: Chai, Paan, and Political Plans

Bihar’s electorate—35% aged 18-29, 40%+ tied to migrant families per the Election Commission of India (ECI)—craves jobs and stability, yet caste, sharpened by the 2023 caste survey (Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) 36%, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) 27%, Scheduled Castes (SCs) 20%, upper castes 15%, Muslims 18%, Scheduled Tribes (STs) 2%), drives the pulse.

The NDA’s strategy blends precision and pragmatism. The BJP’s 101 seats allocate 49 (48.5%) to upper castes—21 Rajputs (Kshatriyas), 16 Bhumihars, 11 Brahmins, one Kayastha—far exceeding their 15% share, balanced by 34 OBCs (13 Vaishyas, seven Kushwahas, six Yadavs, two Kurmis), 10-12 EBCs, 12 SCs, zero Muslims, a move toward Hindu consolidation that questions their inclusive development rhetoric in a state where migration drains hope.

JD(U), under Nitish Kumar’s Kurmi-EBC mastery, is a foil to the BJP with 101 seats: 37 OBCs (13 Kushwahas, 12 Kurmis, eight Yadavs), 22 EBCs, 22 uppers, 15 SCs, one ST, four Muslims (mostly women in Seemanchal), crafting a backward stronghold that offsets the BJP’s elite tilt.

NDA totals hit over 85 uppers (35%+), 80+ OBCs (33%+), ~34 EBCs (14%), ~40 SCs/STs (16%), ~5 Muslims (2%), a synergy sharper than 2020’s 68 uppers (28%) and 35-40 EBCs (14-16%), banking on Nitish’s backward appeal and BJP’s Savarna clout, yet underrepresenting EBCs against their 36% survey weight risks ire amid unfulfilled job pledges.

NDA allies add texture: LJP(RV)’s 29 seats blend five Rajputs, four Bhumihars, one Brahmin with five Yadavs, one Kushwaha, four Paswan SCs, one Muslim, tapping Chirag Paswan’s Dalit pull; HAM(S)’s six prioritise two Bhumihars and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Musahar kin; RLM’s six highlight three Kushwahas, one Vaishya, one Bhumihar, one Rajput, with Upendra Kushwaha bolstering OBCs. This mosaic suggests the NDA’s manifesto—jobs, infrastructure, migration curbs—masks caste-driven math, prioritising victory over the survey’s equity call.

The Mahagathbandhan’s arithmetic, less seamless, leans on RJD’s ~144 seats with 28+ Yadavs (>50% in announced), six+ Muslims, a few uppers, scattered EBCs/SCs, fortifying the Muslim-Yadav (MY) axis (30%+ electorate) that fuels Tejashwi Yadav’s social justice fire but alienates non-Yadavs, sparking ticket protests. The INC’s 53 seats allocate 17-19 uppers (eight Bhumihars, six Brahmins, five Rajputs), 10 OBCs (five Yadavs, one Kurmi, one Kushwaha, three Vaishyas), five EBCs, nine SCs, one ST, five Muslims—a Savarna push clashing with manifesto vows for proportional shares, revealing elite bias.

The Left’s 25-30 seats add 15 OBCs, one EBC, eight SCs, two Muslims, four uppers (two Bhumihars, one Rajput), grounding grassroots appeal, while VIP’s 4-6 target Koeri/Kushwaha/Nishad EBCs under Mukesh Sahani’s Mallah sway, yielding alliance totals of 30+ Yadavs, 13-15 Muslims, 25-30 uppers, 40-50 OBCs, 10-15 EBCs—a MY-heavy mix short on EBCs, criticised as stagnant against survey demands.

Fringe disruptors stir chaos: AIMIM’s 25 Muslim-centric picks in Seemanchal, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, erode Mahagathbandhan’s minority base; JSP’s 243 seats (17 EBCs, 11 backwards, nine minorities, 19 reserved) under Prashant Kishor challenge dynasties; JJD’s 21, steered by Tej Pratap Yadav, snipe at RJD; SBSP’s planned 153 lean OBC—wildcards that could tip a hung assembly, per surveys.

Manifestos unfold like fragile promises: the NDA’s BJP-led Sujhav Yatra, ending today, gathers job and infrastructure visions, its delay a tactical wait for opposition errors, echoing 2020’s unkept job pledges that left 12% unemployment (CMIE 2024). Mahagathbandhan’s September 24 EBC plan promises >50% reservations, land allotments, anti-atrocity laws, a regulatory body—bold but shadowed by Lalu’s faded legacy; JSP pushes governance and cash transfers; BSP/AIMIM lag, exposing pledges as props sidestepping migration’s wounds, with 2 million+ Biharis leaving annually (CMIE).

Rewind to 2020: NDA’s uppers rose from ~68 (28%) to 85+ (35%), OBCs held ~80-90 (33-37%) to 80+ (33%), Yadavs dropped from 33 to ~14, EBCs steadied ~35-40 (14-16%) to ~32-34, SC/ST climbed ~25-30 (10-12%) to ~40 (16%), Muslims inched ~2-3 to ~5—a shift boosting Savarnas and SCs while trimming Yadavs to jab RJD. Mahagathbandhan’s Yadavs persist 58+ to 30+, Muslims dip ~25 (10%) to 13-15 (6%), uppers rise ~20-25 (8-10%) to 25-30 (10-12%), OBCs fall ~90-100 (37-41%) to 60-70 (25-29%), EBCs crash ~35-40 (14-16%) to 10-15 (4-6%)—an INC-driven Savarna surge but EBC shortfall risking backward drift.

This evolution unveils Bihar’s trap: alliances refine 2020’s complementarities—NDA’s BJP-JD(U) duet, Mahagathbandhan’s RJD-INC waltz—but falter on EBC/SC balance, choosing winnability over the survey’s “share by numbers” ethos. Influencers like Nitish Kumar (Kurmi-EBC anchor), Tejashwi Yadav (Yadav scion), Chirag Paswan (Paswan SC star), Mukesh Sahani (Mallah EBC spark), Jitan Ram Manjhi (Musahar SC sage), Upendra Kushwaha (Kushwaha OBC force), Asaduddin Owaisi (Muslim disruptor), and Prashant Kishor (anti-dynasty crusader) amplify divides, sustaining identity over progress.

Regionally, the calculus shifts: Seemanchal’s Muslim-heavy seats pit NDA’s four Muslims against AIMIM’s 25, Mithilanchal’s Brahmin bastions favour BJP/INC’s Savarna bets, Magadh’s SC-EBC mix leans on LJP/HAM’s Dalit focus—local strategies tying tickets to voter pulses, exposing manifesto uniformity as hollow.

Rebels and independents, with over 1,000 ECI filings, brew chaos: RJD rebels in Yadav strongholds or BJP turncoats in Savarna pockets could fracture votes, a wildcard potent in tight races where EBC frustrations simmer, as a Muzaffarpur shopkeeper grumbles, “They give tickets to elites, not us.”

Gender dynamics unmask optics: BJP’s nine women, JD(U)’s 13, INC’s five often fill reserved or Muslim-heavy seats, not power centres, undermining empowerment claims in rural patriarchal strongholds, notes sociologist Shalini Verma: “Women are props, not players.”

Past manifesto failures—Nitish’s 2020 job promises fading against the tide—fuel distrust. “They talk jobs, but my son’s in Mumbai,” laments a Gaya chaiwala, while a Patna student, Priya Kumari, adds, “We vote, but men decide tickets.”

Voter sentiment, per polls, prioritises jobs (60%+ cite unemployment) over caste fairness. Yet, parties cling to identity, risking apathy JSP might tap, though its lack of caste titans limits reach: “Kishor’s vision is fresh, but faces are new.”

Bihar’s youth (18-29, 35% of voters) and migrant families (40%+) amplify this tension, yearning for economic anchors over caste calculus, yet parties double down on tribalism, as seen in NDA’s Hindu tilt and Mahagathbandhan’s MY fortress. A first-time voter in Bhagalpur, Ravi Kumar, sighs, “I want a job, not a quota.”

The caste skew is clear:

This arithmetic exposes Bihar’s paradox: refined complementarities—NDA’s upper-backwards harmony, Mahagathbandhan’s MY-Savarna blend—clash with equity vows, shortchanging EBCs/SCs. 

As November 6 and 11 near, Bihar walks a tightrope between promise and paralysis, where caste machinations, regional ploys, and theatrical pledges eclipse jobs’ cry—a crucible of ambition, searing yet unresolved, asking: will voters crown calculus or spark change?

*Senior journalist