Bihar 2025: AI on Leash, Ghosts in Rolls

Tejashwi vs Nitish: Deepfakes & Deletions
Why 50 Seats Could Torch the Throne

Patna: Bihar’s 243-seat showdown is now a triple-threat battle: regulatory chokeholds, digital landmines, and demographic ghosts. The Election Commission of India (ECI) dropped its sharpest weapon yet on October 24, 2025: a binding advisory that every Artificial Intelligence (AI)-generated or altered image, audio, or video used in campaigning must carry prominent, non-removable labels — “AI-Generated,” “Synthetic Content,” or “Digitally Altered” — occupying at least 10% of screen real estate (top banner for videos, first 10% runtime for audio), with creator metadata embedded and internal logs maintained for audit. Misleading content must be removed within 3 hours of notice. Non-compliance invokes Article 324, the Model Code of Conduct, and Information Technology (IT) Rules 2021, with potential disqualification threats.

This is no soft guideline. It’s the ECI’s third escalation in 18 months — building on May 2024 Lok Sabha directives and January 2025 updates — now hardened for Bihar’s 7.43 crore voters, 25% of whom are 18–25, glued to WhatsApp, Instagram, and X. The advisory directly impacts social media outreach, particularly in urban centres such as Patna, Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, and Gaya, where digital messaging is a core component of party strategies. Political parties are now required to audit content, train teams, and implement verification systems, as lapses could invite regulatory or reputational consequences.

Just 24 hours before the ECI advisory, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) declared Tejashwi Yadav as its Chief Ministerial face in a high-voltage Patna rally. Backed by senior Congress leader and strategist Ashok Gehlot (logistics, funding, Other Backward Class (OBC) outreach), Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahani (projected as Deputy Chief Minister (CM), locking Nishad/Extremely Backward Class (EBC) votes), and Left allies (Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (CPI(ML)), Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM)), Tejashwi’s core pitch targets 10 lakh government jobs, an end to forced migration, a caste census plus social justice, and a direct attack on the “double-engine disaster” of National Democratic Alliance (NDA) governance failures. “Nitish ji is tired. Bihar needs energy, not excuses,” Tejashwi declared at the October 23 rally, a line that went viral with 1.2 million views on X. Yet, the NDA has now targeted RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan of ‘ignoring’ Muslims, which constitutes 17 per cent of the population in Bihar. 

The NDA has announced no CM face. Nitish Kumar campaigns as the “silent stabiliser,” leaning on Modi-Shah-Nadda star power, infrastructure wins (roads, bridges, ethanol plants), and welfare continuity (Jeevika, 7 Nischay 2.0). Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) leaders reinforce ground-level mobilisation and constituency engagement.

Total nominations filed exceeded 3,000, but with the withdrawal window closed on October 24 for Phase I and October 28 for Phase II, roughly 1,300 candidates remain across 243 seats. Rebels and wildcards persist: Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj contests all 243 seats with an anti-dynasty, youth-focused platform; regional parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) are active in swing constituencies, seeking to influence narrowly contested seats; over 70 rebels (mostly Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)/JD(U)) stay in the fray after failed persuasion.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of voter rolls, concluded in September 2025, has redrawn Bihar’s electoral map. 65 lakh names were deleted (dead, duplicates, shifted), 35 lakh were marked “untraceable” with the highest impact in migrant-heavy districts, including Sitamarhi (22 lakh), Kishanganj, Supaul, and Araria, while 21.53 lakh new voters were added, mostly in the 18–19 age group and urban influx. The net roll stands at 7.43 crore, down from 7.59 crore in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Opposition parties charge systematic disenfranchisement of Muslims, Yadavs, EBCs, and migrants; the ECI defends it as an accuracy drive with door-to-door verification and no community bias. The Supreme Court is hearing Public Interest Litigations (PILs) and is likely to mandate voter slips and awareness camps without mass reinstatement.

Northern Bihar, including Sitamarhi, Araria, Katihar, and Supaul, represents the most unpredictable cluster of contests due to SIR deletions, Muslim-Yadav-EBC churn, flood anger, and mixed caste demographics, with 2020 average margins under 1,500 votes. Central Bihar, encompassing Nalanda, Jehanabad, and Gaya, remains competitive where incumbency advantages intersect with emerging opposition pressure and margins of 1,800–3,000 votes. Urban and semi-urban corridors, including Patna, Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, and Gaya, serve as key centres for digital outreach where AI-compliant messaging and content verification will be highly visible and closely scrutinised, with margins under 2,000 votes. Predictive dynamics indicate roughly 50–60 constituencies could determine the overall outcome, with swing margins historically under 2,000 votes in many northern and central districts.

Campaigns are adapting swiftly. The NDA runs fact-anchored reels, Modi cutouts, and “Vikas Yatra” through an in-house content cell, FactCheck.in tie-up, and watermark bot. The Mahagathbandhan pushes Tejashwi’s youth rallies and “Berozgari Hatao” via the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) Digital Army, third-party AI audit, and pre-post approval chain. Jan Suraaj deploys anti-dynasty memes and Prashant Kishor (PK) speeches with a volunteer fact squad and open-source watermarking. Media organisations and campaign teams are morphing rapidly in response to the ECI’s AI crackdown, shifting from unchecked viral content to rigorous verification measures and disciplined messaging protocols that include real-time AI detection tools, mandatory watermarking software, and cross-platform compliance checks to prevent deepfake proliferation. This transformation is evident in how outlets like local news channels and digital portals now embed AI disclaimers in all shared clips, run fact-check segments before airing campaign ads, and collaborate with tech firms for automated content scanning, ensuring that misinformation doesn’t derail voter trust. Leaders with structured organisational systems are better positioned to operate under these constraints, turning potential pitfalls into strengths by showcasing transparency as a campaign virtue. For the Mahagathbandhan, ensuring that Tejashwi Yadav’s campaign content remains verified and compliant is critical, often involving daily audits to align with their narrative of accountability. For the NDA, governance and incumbency messaging must be factually anchored to withstand scrutiny, with teams drilling on rapid response protocols to counter any synthetic attacks.

A stark illustration of these dynamics is the Nitish AI clip incident, which unfolded on October 20 and served as a wake-up call for the entire electoral ecosystem. The episode began when an anonymous X account posted a 45-second video purporting to show Chief Minister Nitish Kumar slurring his words during a rally in Bhagalpur, mumbling incoherent promises like “free liquor for all” amid apparent disorientation—a clear jab at his age and leadership stability. The clip, which amassed over 500,000 views in under an hour and sparked the trending hashtag #DrunkNitish, was quickly identified as an AI-generated deepfake through forensic analysis by independent fact-checkers, revealing mismatched lip-sync, unnatural audio modulation, and metadata tracing back to a Noida-based freelance editor with no direct party affiliations. NDA spokespersons denounced it as a “malicious Mahagathbandhan ploy” to smear Nitish’s image, while the opposition countered that it highlighted broader concerns over synthetic misinformation. The ECI intervened swiftly: the BJP’s IT cell flagged it at 10:15 PM, a formal complaint was lodged by JD(U) at 10:17 PM, and the video was pulled from platforms by 11:58 PM—well within the advisory’s three-hour window—after mandatory labeling and an ongoing probe into its origins, potentially leading to fines or disqualifications under IT Rules. This incident not only tested the new AI safeguards but also amplified media morphing, as outlets pivoted to in-depth coverage with expert breakdowns on deepfake detection, public service announcements on spotting synthetics, and collaborative reporting with ECI to educate voters, ultimately reinforcing the need for vigilant, tech-savvy journalism in Bihar’s high-stakes digital arena.

An NDA majority needs 122+ seats for Nitish 2.0 and Modi 3.0 synergy. A Mahagathbandhan win at 122+ would make Tejashwi the youngest CM and revive Congress-Left fortunes. A hung assembly at 110–120 each could see kingmakers in Jan Suraaj, BSP, or rebels.

With roughly 1,300 candidates, voter-roll revisions affecting over 35 lakh electors, and AI-compliance rules governing all digital content, Bihar’s elections are unfolding under multiple verifiable constraints. Constituencies in northern Bihar, including Sitamarhi, Araria, Katihar, and Supaul, remain highly competitive due to narrow historical margins, migration-linked adjustments, and mixed caste demographics. Urban and semi-urban districts such as Patna, Muzaffarpur, Bhagalpur, and Gaya, where digital outreach is extensive, are likely to experience heightened scrutiny of AI-compliant messaging. These factors — combined with constituency-specific engagement and disciplined campaign operations — are shaping the likely outcome of Bihar’s tightly poised Assembly elections.

Polling is set for November 6 (127 seats) and November 11 (116 seats), with counting on November 14. Watch this space.

– global bihari bureau