By Shankar Raj*
India Eyes Aussie Vote for Trade, Quad Boost
As Anthony Albanese won his election as the Prime Minister of Australia, Canada’s anti-United States President Donald Trump play swayed Aussie votes. Many analysts say Australia will go the Canadian way, with voters favouring distance from Trump’s wild and unpredictable second presidency.
As Australians voted today, May 3, 2025, Trump’s shadow significantly loomed over the Aussie vote clash.
The shadow of Trump’s disruptive second term was more than visible over the federal election. The crucial Australian polls unfolded under the weight of Trump’s tantrums and tariffs, his power grabs, nasty tariff wars, and threats to nations and the judiciary, brewing global resentment.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s centre-left Labor Party faced off against Peter Dutton’s centre-right Liberal Party, which vowed to get the country “back on track” after three years in opposition. A YouGov poll on May 1 forecasted Labor winning 84 of 150 lower house seats, with Albanese leading Dutton as preferred prime minister 47–35%, a reversal from earlier Coalition leads. An anti-Trump wave, fueled by proposed US tariffs, including a 10% rate on Australian exports, tilted the scales in Albanese’s favour, echoing Canada’s recent election, where Trump’s suggestion that Canada become the 51st US state sparked backlash.
Until early 2025, Dutton, a former police officer and minister for defence, home affairs, and immigration, led in surveys. He fancied himself as a Trump of Down Under, but Trump’s global upset has drowned his momentum. His tough stance on migration, crime, and “woke” policies resonated with voters hit by the cost-of-living crisis. He claimed Australia takes in too many migrants and has been accused of stoking culture wars, amplifying divisive rhetoric. Likened to Trump for his right-wing populism, Dutton promised 41,000 federal job cuts, including $813.5 million from foreign aid (excluding Pacific, Indonesia, and Timor Leste), an end to work-from-home arrangements, and a nuclear energy push, mirroring Trump’s anti-establishment rhetoric. He branded the nation’s public broadcaster, the ABC, “hate media,” stoking culture wars. But Trump’s tariff threats, including the 10% rate, and his provocative “51st state” remarks about Canada have made Dutton’s Trumpian style a liability. A Lowy Institute poll in March 2025 showed only 36% of Australians trust the U.S., a 20-point drop since June 2024.
“I’m my own person,” Dutton insisted during a leaders’ debate where Trump was the first audience question, rejecting the “Temu Trump” label pinned by critics, a nod to the Chinese e-commerce site for cheap knockoffs. He’s been burning the midnight oil trying to distance himself from these comparisons. Analysts argue his alignment with Trump’s style eroded his lead. “His instincts are those of a right-wing populist, bearing resemblance to Trump’s rhetoric,” said Frank Bongiorno of the Australian National University. The tariff threat, which Albanese criticised as “not the act of a friend” while seeking exemptions, has fueled a “rally around the flag” effect, boosting Albanese’s steady image. The formula in U.S.-allied democracies is clear: distance from Trump boosts electoral chances. Foreigners might be cynical about their leaders, but many look at Americans and think, “We don’t want what you’ve got.”
Australia’s election mirrors Canada’s upheaval, where Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party staged a comeback on April 28, 2025, overcoming a 25-point deficit. Carney capitalised on anti-Trump sentiment, particularly after Trump’s repeated “51st state” remarks and tariff threats, which he mocked as wanting Canada’s “land, resources, water.” Carney, who meets Trump at the White House on May 6, said, “I wonder what to do with a madman,” and stressed distinguishing “wants from reality”. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who lost his Carleton seat to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy, now plans to run in a byelection after MP Damien Kurek stepped down in Battle River-Crowfoot, a move Carney promised to facilitate. “Australia is seeing a diluted version of this trend,” said Marija Taflaga of the Australian National University. “Better the devil you know,” she added, favouring Albanese over Dutton.
Dutton risks losing his Dickson seat, a Brisbane electorate held for over 20 years with a 1.7% margin, to Labor’s Ali France and independent Ellie Smith, a community advocate running on local issues. Changing demographics and backlash against Dutton’s Trump-like policies, like his short-lived ban on public servants working from home, threaten his hold. “I suspect he’ll hold on,” Bongiorno said, but a loss would be seismic, akin to Poilievre’s ignominy in Canada. Labor targeted Dickson, with Albanese campaigning there to unseat Dutton. Dutton’s claim he could negotiate better with Trump backfired, with voters questioning his judgment.
The cost-of-living crisis defined the election. Both parties offered relief. Labor promised $150 temporary power bill rebates, a $1,000 instant tax deduction for work expenses, and a reduced marginal tax rate from 16% to 14% starting July 2026, alongside social services and climate investments. The Coalition offered a one-off $1,200 tax offset, a 25-cent-per-litre fuel excise cut for 12 months, and tax cuts, though critics note their temporary nature. Dutton’s pledges, like slashing jobs, ending work-from-home privileges, overhauling “woke” school agendas (some of which he’s had to roll back), and overhauling curricula to counter “indoctrination,” drew scrutiny. His backflip on work-from-home bans alienated suburban voters. Liberal insiders noted anti-Trump sentiment and errors like appointing Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as shadow minister for government efficiency hurt Dutton. Price’s “Make Australia great again” comment, though denied as Trump-inspired, tied him to Trump’s rhetoric. Albanese leaned on Medicare, highlighting expanded healthcare access.
While polls favour Albanese, a majority is not guaranteed. Younger voters may boost “Teal” independents and Greens, risking a hung parliament. Shaun Ratcliff noted, “Young renters who earn more than their parents but cannot afford to buy the house they grew up in have little reason to preserve the existing political order.”
India’s Trade, Defence Ties Hinged on Aussie Vote
Australia holds implications for India, a key partner. Both parties back the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad – an informal strategic partnership comprising India, Japan, Australia, and the United States, which aims to promote a free, open, and stable Indo-Pacific region), and the 2022 Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA), with $46 billion in 2024 trade. Unlike Canada, Australia is a big supporter of India, deepening economic and strategic ties. Albanese prioritises a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement by 2026, while Dutton emphasises defence ties.
The Labor government signed the ECTA in 2022, boosting exports like agriculture and minerals to India, and both parties committed to its full implementation by 2025. Dutton’s Coalition pledged enhanced Quad cooperation, including joint naval exercises with India by 2026. However, U.S. tariffs could raise costs for Indian imports like Australian iron ore, critical for India’s steel industry. Trump’s tariffs could disrupt supply chains, but Australia’s support for India against China remains firm.
The election unfolded amid global uncertainty, with Trump’s 10% tariff proposal straining alliances. Albanese balanced preserving AUKUS – the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, intended to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific – by criticising trade barriers, noting Australia’s trade deficit with the U.S. warrants exemptions. This pragmatism contrasts with Dutton’s volatility. As votes were counted, early results suggested Labor’s edge, but there was still a likelihood that crossbenchers could play kingmaker. Now, the big question has been answered: Australia has seen another comeback Down Under, following Canada’s lead. The verdict will ripple beyond Australia’s shores. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Albanese on his “resounding victory and re-election as Prime Minister of Australia. “This emphatic mandate indicates the enduring faith of the Australian people in your leadership. I look forward to working together to further deepen the India-Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and advance our shared vision for peace, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific,” Modi posted on X.
*The author is a senior journalist and a commentator on international affairs.
(With additional inputs from the global bihari bureau)
