Assembly polls: Have Hindus started backing BJP as a bloc?

By Shankar Raj*

Riding high on the victories in the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) toy with the idea of advancing the general elections that is due in April-May to February – March 2024, soon after presenting an interim budget? That may be a possibility since the BJP would be keen to strike the iron when hot. The INDIA bloc is likely to split and signs are starting with Omar Abdullah who has already said that his Jammu & Kashmir National Conference will fight on its own.

The INDIA bloc would be meeting on December 6, 2023, where the Congress is likely to surrender its claim to be the dominant leader of the pack. This would lead to more confusion with none wanting to lead the bloc after the strong showing by the BJP.

A votary of single elections, the Central Government may recommend simultaneous polls in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim and J&K where polls are due between April and May 2024.

If the general elections are advanced, the BJP is likely to sweep the Hindi heartland with more seats coming its way from Uttar Pradesh and, possibly Bihar.

The party will also make headway in Maharashtra, and Goa. In Odisha, the BJP may not have to strive much as Modi has a good friend in Naveen Patnaik.

There is a talk that the BJP may find it tough in the south. That is true to some extent. But the party is likely to do well in Karnataka although the Congress recently won the Assembly elections there.

Karnataka voters have always voted differently when it comes to national elections and with the BJP doing well in the three states today, the saffron party would stand to gain. Tamil Nadu and Kerala may be tough for the BJP though it is expected to pick a few seats. In Telangana too, the BJP may make gains in the general elections. In the Assembly elections, the saffron party has moved up from one seat to eight. This is why Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a special message for Telangana where he promised the people that he would strive better to serve them.

Another significant factor in the elections is that Hindus have started backing the BJP as a bloc as they are fed up and alarmed at the appeasement politics played by the Congress and other parties. If the Muslims would vote for their men in a bloc, the Hindus would do so for the BJP. That is the faint reading on the wall today and will become bolder in the coming days.

More women have started backing the BJP and they seem happy with Modi’s development agenda. There is no agenda on INDIA’s plate, just crumbs of promises.

Attracting investors, Modi’s emergence as a global leader and the visible development milestones like introducing Vande Bharat trains have clicked among the voters.

Modi underscored the BJP’s development agenda in his message after the party bagged the three significant states. He said on X: “We bow to the Janta Janardan. The results in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan indicate that the people of India are firmly with politics of good governance and development, which the @BJP4India stands for. I thank the people of these states for their unwavering support and assure them that we will keep working tirelessly for their well-being.”

What is also significant is that Modi will not have a strong and significant opponent to fight. The opposition also does not have a leader or an agenda except a ‘remove Modi’ slogan.

Alliance parties like the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK) have added to the bloc’s discomfort. DMK leader Udhayanidhi Stalin’s comments on Sanatan Dharma angered the Hindus and may have helped the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

Rahul Gandhi’s not-so-veiled “panauti” comment too was seen in poor taste and likely played an adverse role in Rajasthan. The Congress party’s thrust on caste census and reservation may also have weakened the party.

While the INDIA bloc is still struggling to put its house in order, the BJP is now talking of 2029, confident that it is on the road to victory in the coming year.

*Shankar Raj is a former editor of The New Indian Express, Karnataka and Kerala, and writes regularly on current affairs.