Global Food Prices Edge Up in February: FAO
Wheat, Oils Drive First Food Price Rise in Months
Rome: Global food commodity prices rose in February for the first time in five months, reversing a downward trend as higher quotations for wheat, vegetable oils and several categories of meat offset declines in dairy and sugar prices, according to the latest update issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The FAO Food Price Index, which measures monthly changes in international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 125.3 points in February. This represented a 0.9 per cent increase from the revised January level, although the index remained 1.0 per cent below its value in February 2025.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 1.1 per cent from January, with world wheat prices rising amid reports of frost affecting crops in parts of Europe and the United States of America. Ongoing logistical disruptions in the Russian Federation and across the wider Black Sea region also contributed to the upward pressure on wheat quotations. Prices for coarse grains registered a modest increase, while the FAO All Rice Price Index edged up by 0.4 per cent, supported by sustained demand for basmati and Japonica varieties in international markets.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index recorded the sharpest increase among major commodity groups, rising by 3.3 percent in February to its highest level since June 2022. International palm oil prices strengthened due to firm global import demand combined with seasonally lower production in Southeast Asia. Soyoil prices also rose on expectations of supportive biofuel policy measures in the United States of America. Rapeseed oil prices rebounded amid prospects of stronger import demand for Canadian supplies, while sunflower oil prices declined moderately, partly reflecting increased export availability from Argentina.
The FAO Meat Price Index rose by 0.8 per cent compared with January. Ovine meat prices reached an all-time high, while bovine meat prices increased amid strong import demand from China and the United States of America. Prices of pig and poultry meat also posted slight gains during the month.
In contrast, the FAO Dairy Price Index declined by 1.2 per cent, largely due to lower cheese prices. However, international quotations for skim and whole milk powders increased significantly as import demand strengthened in regions including North Africa, the Near East and Southeast Asia. Global butter prices registered their first monthly increase since reaching a record high in June 2025.
The FAO Sugar Price Index fell by 4.1 percent from January and stood 27.3 per cent below its level a year earlier. The decline was attributed to expectations of ample global supplies in the current production season.
Alongside the price update, FAO released preliminary forecasts indicating that global wheat production may decline by around 3 per cent in 2026 to approximately 810 million tonnes, though the projected output would still remain above the five-year average. The anticipated drop reflects expectations that farmers in the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States of America will reduce winter wheat plantings in response to softer prices. By contrast, the production outlook in India is considered generally favourable, supported by record sowings encouraged by government incentives. Prospects are also positive in Pakistan and broadly favourable in China.
The organisation’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief also provided an early outlook for maize production in countries south of the equator. Expanding planted areas and favourable weather conditions are expected to support above-average harvests in Argentina and Brazil. In South Africa, large plantings are forecast to lead to a second consecutive substantial maize crop in 2026, although production may fall slightly below the 2025 level as irregular weather conditions reduce yields in some provinces.
FAO also revised its estimate of global cereal production in 2025 to a record 3.029 billion tonnes, representing a 5.6 per cent increase from the previous year. The forecast for global cereal utilisation in the 2025–26 marketing season has likewise been raised to a record 2.943 billion tonnes, reflecting anticipated growth in the consumption of wheat, coarse grains and rice.
Global cereal stocks are projected to rise to about 940.5 million tonnes by the end of the season, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 31.9 per cent, a level indicating relatively comfortable supply conditions worldwide.
World trade in cereals during the 2025–26 marketing year is forecast to reach 501.7 million tonnes, a 3.5 per cent increase from the previous year and the second-highest level on record.
Separately, the Agricultural Market Information System, hosted by FAO, released its latest Market Monitor, which examines global wheat cropping trends. The report also notes that escalating tensions in the Near East could push up energy and fertiliser prices, potentially increasing production and transportation costs for farmers and affecting agricultural markets globally.
– global bihari bureau
