Rome: A shortfall in cereal production, especially for maize in Southern Africa, is expected to intensify households’ food insecurity, push up domestic prices and spur a surge in import needs across the subregion. White maize accounts for almost 20 per cent of calories consumed in the subregion.
A new assessment from the Global Information and Early Warning System of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), warned today that acute food insecurity in southern Africa, estimated at 16 million people in the first three months of 2024, could deteriorate in late 2024.
The “disappointing forecast” comes after “widespread and substantial rainfall deficits in February, exacerbated by record high temperatures, a particularly damaging combination for crops,” the report said, noting that there are scant hopes of a recovery before the harvest period commences in May.
FAO pointed out that Cereal production prospects in Southern Africa have taken a sharp turn for the worse since last February. Food prices, already rising at annual rates above 10 per cent, are likely to rise further and, based on current projections, South Africa and Zambia, typically maize exporters, will not be able to cover the supply shortfall, and Zambia has started importing maize to meet the shortfall.
The combination of reduced harvests and rising food prices is particularly harmful to agricultural households and restoration of production, as farm incomes are set to be squeezed while more resources will be needed to purchase food, said Jonathan Pound, an economist at FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System.
This observed pattern is typical of the El Niño weather phenomenon in the region, FAO noted.
According to the report, recent weather trends associated with El Niño decimated harvest prospects and pointed to rising prices and import needs.
Current forecasts however point to a high likelihood of a transition to a La Niña phase later in the year, with more beneficial precipitation patterns.
That makes it “imperative” to scale up resilience-bolstering measures enabling farmers to prepare adequately for the next agricultural season starting in September 2024, FAO said.
The governments of Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe have already declared drought emergencies. Teaming up with the NASA Harvest programme, FAO geospatial observations suggest that key cereal crops will suffer adverse impacts in parts of Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe, with Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique expected to see a notable jump in import needs.
– global bihari bureau
