By Kaushal Kishore*
Lucknow: The poll percentage in first phase of Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections was 60.17%. by 6 PM today. All the 58 assembly seats going to polls today fall in the dominant Jat areas. Here Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav formed an alliance with the Jayant Chaudhary led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in the hope of cornering the Jat votes. Bharatiya Kisan Union leader Rakesh Tikait too belong to this jat land and his native Muzaffarnagar also went to the polls in this phase. Besides Jats, the Muslims, which has a sizeable population in these constituencies going to the poll today, will play a crucial role.
The Election Commission imposed certain restrictions on election campaigns on account of the pandemic. But if the Election Commission had taken cognizance of the fact that the British government adviced its citizens to treat the epidemic arising out of the corona virus as a kind of Flu, it would have been easier for the future lawmakers to campaign on the ground.
Brazil, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, Mexico, Singapore and Japan are other countries that issued similar directives.
The victory of Uttar Pradesh is a guarantee to open the doors of New Delhi. The fate of total 403 members of the state assembly and 80 members of the lower house of the Parliament are decided here. As such this poll is in the center of discussions. Swami Prasad Maurya joined the Samajvadi Party along with his colleagues after taking the advantage of ministerial berth in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. His pro dalit claim is considered a cry for lack of opportunities during his tenure in the power, and his daughter Sanghamitra Gautam still represents Badaun in the parliament from BJP. It creates problems on the family front, but still she has expressed confidence in the BJP. Leaders like Aparna Yadav and Pramod Gupta from Mulayam Singh Yadav’s family have left the SP to join the BJP. The shifting of political ideology of the leaders is a burnig issue in the news.
The turncoat characters of Aya Ram Gaya Ram emerged in the Congress during the era of Indira Gandhi. Priyanka Gandhi is in the field today with slogan, Ladki Hu Lad Sakti Hu (I am a girl, I can fight). On one hand, the poster girl of this campaign, Priyanka Maurya, defected to the BJP, on other hand, there are also characters like Yusuf Ali who had joined the SP the very next day after the Congress declared his its candidate from Chamraua constituency in Rampur.He returned to the Congress when the ticket was denied and is still a Congress candidate. It suggests the crisis within Congress that the lack of candidates is a serious issue for them in Uttar Pradesh. RPN Singh, known to be close to Rahul Gandhi, has also joined the BJP recently.
The reasons for the BJP to be upbeat are many. The biggest being UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s success in tackling the crime situation in the state. One of its leaders, Sudesh Verma, in an article, wrote that the Yogi government has earned the love and respect of people by dismantling the crime structure in the state. Citing figures, Verma wrote, “By 2021, more than 139 notorious criminals have been killed in encounters and more than 13,700 cases have been registered in which more than 43,000 people have been arrested under the Gangster Act. Earlier it paid to be in crime since the family could enjoy the luxuries from the ill-gotten money. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath ensured that this trend was changed. More than 1500 crore worth of property belonging to criminals has been seized.”
Most of the anti Yogi elements started to unite as soon as the fragrance of the perfume came into effect over Uttar Pradesh. Soon after the anti Narendra Modi forces also joined them. The victory of Samajwadi Party is being claimed with the support of these elements. The failure of such an alliance of Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav is a reality. In fact the SP supporters voted in favour of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidates. But many of the SP candidates failed to get equal support from BSP supporters. The people of this class preferred to decide the leader of their choice when the BSP candidates were out of the contest. The BJP strategy is better equipped with the assessment of such a situation. So far the representations of Dalits and women are concerned, Yogi is prepared to challenge Mayawati and Priyanka Gandhi today.
The two poles in the battle of Uttar Pradesh is apparent. BJP in association with Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal and Nishad Party led by Sanjay Nishad is contesting against the coalition of SP and RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal). In addition to the top two coalitions, the contest for the third position is divided among BSP, Congress and AAP (Aam Aadmi Party). The heat of this election season is maintained by Asaduddin Owaisi, who has promised to share the power between Muslims and Dalits. He seems to unite the Hindus that will be beneficial for Yogi to return in the office, and divide the Muslims to hurt Akhilesh to certain extent.
Despite the development policy, the caste equation plays an important role in the politics of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. All the political parties are engaged in caste equations today. Instead of BSP and Congress, the SP leadership focused to engage with the leaders of different sections at the local level. The huge gatherings in Vijay Rath Yatra is a confirmation to it. But still, whether it will ensure the victory, is a serious question. And the answer to it lies in the analysis of the representation.
There are 86 reserved seats in Uttar Pradesh assembly. BSP supremo has fielded 90 Dalit candidates out of the 300 seats in her list. Mayawati claims to have 21 percent votes of this class. In the last election, the Yogi government came into existence by winning 70 such seats. This time the BJP is in the fray with 67 percent of the seats represented by Dalits and women. Priyanka Gandhi has fielded 40 percent women as Congress candidate. SP-RLD coalition is also keeping an eye on this vote bank with certain policies.
The political parties trying hard to reach closer to these people in Uttar Pradesh today need to learn from the policy of the BJP itself. Publicity and reality are the two things that people and leaders keep an eye on, so far the socialist dreams of Gandhi and Lohia are concerned. This is where Akhilesh Yadav and Jayant Chaudhary needed improvement, in addition to the question of representation. The political phrases that they have coined are exciting enough to earn seats for the opposition bench. Mayawati has handed over the reins to Satish Mishra before leaving the battlefield.
All the political parties engaged in the battle of Uttar Pradesh are trying hard to manage its vote banks. Dalits and Muslims are the top two, as such they are in the discussion. In the last assembly election, Dalits had voted in favour of the BJP. This time Yogi Adityanath seems to be prepared to achieve the same goal. The support of this vote bank is a guarantee of electoral victory. Despite all this, one has to wait for the decision to come out of EVM (Electronic Voting Machine) before the concluding remarks on the mandate.
*Kaushal Kishore is the author of The Holy Ganga (Rupa, 2008) and Managing Editor of Panchayat Sandesh, a monthly organ of All India Panchayat Parishad. The views expressed as personal.
– with additional inputs from global bihari bureau
If wooing muslim voters and toeing same old political principle of muslim appeasement would become successful is the Key question ?