IMD Predicts 106% Rainfall for 2025 Monsoon Season; Above-Normal Rain Forecast for Central, South India; Northeast India Faces Below-Normal Monsoon Rain
New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD), under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, today released its updated Long-Range Forecast for the 2025 Southwest Monsoon season (June–September), predicting above-normal rainfall across India at 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ±4%.
This optimistic forecast indicates a high probability of a robust monsoon, significantly boosting prospects for the Kharif cropping season, particularly in the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which encompasses much of India’s rainfed agricultural land critical for food production.
Central India and the South Peninsular region are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, while Northwest India is likely to experience normal rainfall levels, ranging between 92-108% of LPA. In contrast, Northeast India is forecast to see below-normal rainfall (<94% of LPA).
Most parts of the country are expected to have normal to above-normal rainfall from June to September 2025, except for parts of Northwest India, East India, and many areas in Northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is anticipated.
For June 2025 specifically, nationwide rainfall is projected to be above normal, exceeding 108% of LPA. However, certain southern parts of the Peninsular region, along with areas in Northwest and Northeast India, may experience below-normal rainfall.
On the temperature front, June 2025 is likely to see normal to below-normal maximum temperatures across much of India, except in Northwest and Northeast India, where above-normal maximum temperatures are expected. Minimum temperatures are forecast to remain above normal across most of the country, except in some regions of Central India and the adjoining southern Peninsula, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are anticipated.
The IMD emphasised that it will continue to monitor conditions and provide updated forecasts to support planning in agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.
– global bihari bureau
